All matches

KAA Gent — RSC Anderlecht, Pro League

Belgium, Pro League

KAA Gent
2.3WDWWW
—
RSC Anderlecht
2.5WLWDW
Outcome probability
422929
KAA Gent42%Draw29%RSC Anderlecht29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1KAA Gent42%2.37—
XDraw29%3.47—
2RSC Anderlecht29%3.45—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.06

No51%

ours 1.95

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKAA GentRSC AnderlechtCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded0.330.330.66
Corners10.711.311.0
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    KAA GentRSC Anderlecht
    2Table position5
    44.00%Possession61.70%
    2.9Days of rest2.9
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour KAA Gent: a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

KAA Gent

  • homeRoyal Standard de Liège2:1
  • awayKRC Genk1:1
  • awayCercle Brugge KSV3:0
  • homeOud-Heverlee Leuven1:0
  • homeClub Brugge KV2:1

RSC Anderlecht

  • homeSV Zulte-Waregem3:0
  • homeOlympique Lyonnais1:2
  • awayYR KV Mechelen1:0
  • homeKRC Genk0:0
  • homeKV Kortrijk1:0

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Pro League1:1
  • 04/12/26Pro League1:3
  • 01/18/26Pro League4:2
  • 09/23/25Pro League0:1
  • 04/27/25Pro League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Royal Union Saint-Gilloise761021:319
2KAA Gent761013:419
3Club Brugge KV760115:318
4Sporting du Pays de Charleroi760115:718
5RSC Anderlecht74127:513
6SV Zulte-Waregem732210:711
7Royal Standard de Liège732213:1211

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.