All matches

Italy — Turkey, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations League

Italy
2.4WLDWL
—
Turkey
2.5LLWLL
Outcome probability
502326
Italy50%Draw23%Turkey26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Italy50%1.99—
XDraw23%4.28—
2Turkey26%3.78—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.98

No50%

ours 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricItalyTurkeyCombined
Goals scored0.670.501.17
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners12.311.011.6
Cards2.31.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    ItalyTurkey
    18Table position52
    53.00%Possession58.50%
    3Days of rest3
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Italy: a home win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 6.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Italy

  • awayTurkey4:1
  • homeBelgium0:2
  • awayBosnia Herzegovina1:1
  • homeNorthern Ireland2:0
  • homeNorway1:4

Turkey

  • homeItaly1:4
  • homeFrance0:1
  • homeUnited States Men's3:2
  • homeParaguay0:1
  • awayAustralia0:2

Head to head

  • 09/28/26UEFA Nations League4:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
16Albania11002:03
17Armenia21014:33
18Italy21014:33
19Denmark21014:33
20Spain11003:23
21Luxembourg11002:13
22Croatia11002:13
23Belgium21012:13
24Malta11002:13
25Norway21014:43
26Kosovo21012:33
27Iceland10101:11
28Azerbaijan10101:11
29Faroe Islands10101:11
30Estonia10101:11
31Kazakhstan10101:11
32Slovenia10100:01
33Scotland10100:01
34Gibraltar10100:01
35Andorra20111:21
36Cyprus20111:21
37Germany20111:21
38Georgia20110:11
39Hungary20110:11
40Poland20111:31
41Latvia20110:21
42England10012:30
43Czech Republic10011:20
44Bulgaria10011:20
45Serbia20022:40
46Moldova10010:20
47Belarus10010:20
48Liechtenstein10010:20
49Romania20023:60
50FYR Macedonia10010:30
51Wales20020:30
52Turkey20021:50
53Israel20021:60
54San Marino10010:70

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.