UEFA Nations League

ItalyНВПВВ
BelgiumПВВВН
1Italy62%model1.61bookmaker2.20
XDraw20%model5.12bookmaker3.64
2Belgium18%model5.48bookmaker3.32
calculated at 21:07, 162 мс

Outcome

Italy62%
Draw20%
Belgium18%

Corners

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Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

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Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Italy vs Belgium

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Home advantage and current form favour Italy: a home win is rated at 62%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Italy

DWLWW
  • awayBosnia Herzegovina1:1
  • homeNorthern Ireland2:0
  • homeNorway1:4
  • awayMoldova2:0
  • homeIsrael3:0

Belgium

LWWWD
  • awaySpain1:2
  • awayUnited States Men's4:1
  • homeSenegal3:2
  • awayNew Zealand5:1
  • homeIran0:0

Head to headscore from the perspective of Italy

  • 11/14/24away · UEFA Nations League1:0W
  • 10/10/24home · UEFA Nations League2:2D

League table

The table appears once a few rounds have been played.

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.

Италия vs Бельгия: prediction and stats — VARstats