Both teams to score
Yes43%
ours 2.34
No57%
ours 1.75
All matches
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Independiente Santa Fe SA — CA Bucaramanga, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Independiente Santa Fe SA
2.8WLWWDCA Bucaramanga
2.5WWDWDOutcome probability
482923
Independiente Santa Fe SA48%Draw29%CA Bucaramanga23%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Independiente Santa Fe SA2.09—
XDraw3.42—
2CA Bucaramanga4.37—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricIndependiente Santa Fe SACA BucaramangaCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded0.500.170.67
Corners11.011.511.3
Cards3.04.07.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Independiente Santa Fe SACA Bucaramanga8.1Days of rest3.14Table position102Matches in 14 days346.70%Possession36.50% - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Independiente Santa Fe SA look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
71%
Form and context
Independiente Santa Fe SA
- awayCS Deportiva y Cultural de Pereira2:1
- homeAsociación Deportivo Cali0:1
- awayAlianza Valledupar FC4:1
- homeClub Deportes Tolima SA1:0
- homeFortaleza CEIF FC2:2
CA Bucaramanga
- awayOnce Caldas SA3:1
- homeCD La Equidad Seguros SA2:0
- homeDeportivo Independiente Medellín2:2
- awayCS Deportiva y Cultural de Pereira3:1
- awayAsociación Deportivo Cali1:1
Head to head
- 03/28/26Categoria Primera A2:1
- 12/09/25Categoria Primera A0:0
- 11/19/25Categoria Primera A0:1
- 08/10/25Categoria Primera A1:2
- 03/19/25Categoria Primera A1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA32177848:2658
Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA32177848:26583
Club Deportes Tolima SA341510946:3455
Club Deportes Tolima SA341510946:34554Independiente Santa Fe SA341315653:3654
Independiente Santa Fe SA341315653:36545
CD Popular Junior FC SA341581152:4253
CD Popular Junior FC SA341581152:42536
Asociación Deportivo Cali30139837:2448
Asociación Deportivo Cali30139837:24487
Millonarios FC SA321211949:3447
Millonarios FC SA321211949:34478
Once Caldas SA321113847:4046
Once Caldas SA321113847:40469
Deportivo Independiente Medellín301371045:3946
Deportivo Independiente Medellín301371045:394610CA Bucaramanga291013643:2943
CA Bucaramanga291013643:294311
AD Pasto321261438:4642
AD Pasto321261438:464212
CD La Equidad Seguros SA339131141:5240
CD La Equidad Seguros SA339131141:5240