All matches

IK Sirius Fotboll — IF Elfsborg, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

IK Sirius Fotboll
2.4WWLLL
—
IF Elfsborg
2.2WWLWD
Outcome probability
502327
IK Sirius Fotboll50%Draw23%IF Elfsborg27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1IK Sirius Fotboll50%1.99—
XDraw23%4.42—
2IF Elfsborg27%3.67—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIK Sirius FotbollIF ElfsborgCombined
Goals scored0.501.171.67
Conceded0.830.671.50
Corners10.311.210.7
Cards1.51.02.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    IK Sirius FotbollIF Elfsborg
    1Table position4
    8Days of rest5.8
    48.00%Possession42.50%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    IK Sirius Fotboll look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

IK Sirius Fotboll

  • awayÖrgryte IS2:1
  • awayVästerås SK Fotboll1:0
  • homeMalmö FF0:1
  • homeBK Häcken0:3
  • awayMjällby AIF3:4

IF Elfsborg

  • awayDjurgårdens IF2:1
  • homeKalmar FF1:0
  • awayIF Brommapojkarna1:2
  • homeDegerfors2:0
  • awayIFK Göteborg1:1

Head to head

  • 07/19/26Allsvenskan3:1
  • 10/26/25Allsvenskan4:0
  • 04/23/25Allsvenskan3:4
  • 10/06/24Allsvenskan4:1
  • 04/29/24Allsvenskan0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1IK Sirius Fotboll21153350:2848
2Hammarby IF22134549:2043
3Djurgårdens IF21122745:2138
4IF Elfsborg22107531:2237
5BK Häcken2299439:3036
6Västerås SK Fotboll22105734:3535

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.