IFK Mariehamn — Tampereen Ilves, Veikkausliiga

Finland, VeikkausliigaOctober 10 at 04:00 PM

IFK Mariehamn

0.9LWLWW

—

Tampereen Ilves

2.5WWWLL

Outcome probability

192259

IFK Mariehamn19%Draw22%Tampereen Ilves59%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1IFK Mariehamn19%5.25—

XDraw22%4.61—

2Tampereen Ilves59%1.69—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.58

No37%

ours 2.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIFK MariehamnTampereen IlvesCombined

Goals scored1.831.833.66

Conceded1.001.172.17

Corners9.59.59.5

Cards1.81.23.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
IFK MariehamnTampereen Ilves
11Table position7
39.70%Possession48.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Tampereen Ilves travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 59%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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