All matches

IF Gnistan — FC Inter Turku, Veikkausliiga

Finland, Veikkausliiga

IF Gnistan
2.0DWDDW
—
FC Inter Turku
3.0WWLWL
Outcome probability
282646
IF Gnistan28%Draw26%FC Inter Turku46%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1IF Gnistan28%25%3.594.08+3.4
XDraw26%27%3.833.72-0.8
2FC Inter Turku46%56%2.171.80-9.5

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90book 1.69

No47%

ours 2.11book 2.05

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIF GnistanFC Inter TurkuCombined
Goals scored1.830.832.66
Conceded1.331.002.33
Corners10.38.39.3
Cards2.01.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    IF GnistanFC Inter Turku
    4Table position2
    40.50%Possession56.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FC Inter Turku still look stronger — an away win is rated at 46%. Bookmakers price this at 1.80.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

IF Gnistan

  • homeHelsingin Jalkapalloklubi1:1
  • awayAC Oulu2:1
  • homeKuopion Palloseura1:1
  • homeTurun Palloseura1:1
  • awayHelsingin Jalkapalloklubi3:2

FC Inter Turku

  • awayAC Oulu1:0
  • homeVaasan Palloseura1:0
  • awayHelsingin Jalkapalloklubi1:2
  • homeKuopion Palloseura1:0
  • awayFC København1:4

Head to head

  • 07/26/26Veikkausliiga2:1
  • 05/05/26Veikkausliiga2:0
  • 10/22/25Veikkausliiga1:2
  • 09/13/25Veikkausliiga0:2
  • 06/27/25Veikkausliiga2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Kuopion Palloseura25139341:2448
2FC Inter Turku25139332:1848
3Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi25126739:2942
4IF Gnistan25118640:3241
5FC Lahti25106930:2436
6Vaasan Palloseura25106930:2536

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.