IF Elfsborg — Malmö FF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 23 at 05:00 PM

IF Elfsborg

2.2WWLWD

—

Malmö FF

2.4LWDWL

Outcome probability

372438

IF Elfsborg37%Draw24%Malmö FF38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1IF Elfsborg37%2.67—

XDraw24%4.08—

2Malmö FF38%2.62—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIF ElfsborgMalmö FFCombined

Goals scored1.000.831.83

Conceded0.500.501.00

Corners10.510.310.4

Cards0.51.52.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
IF ElfsborgMalmö FF
4Table position7
50.80%Possession37.70%
5.2Days of rest5.1
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Malmö FF travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 38%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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