IF Brommapojkarna — BK Häcken, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 28 at 06:00 PM

IF Brommapojkarna

1.4LLWLW

—

BK Häcken

2.0WDDLW

Outcome probability

312346

IF Brommapojkarna31%Draw23%BK Häcken46%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1IF Brommapojkarna31%3.25—

XDraw23%4.28—

2BK Häcken46%2.18—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIF BrommapojkarnaBK HäckenCombined

Goals scored0.501.001.50

Conceded0.830.171.00

Corners11.010.310.7

Cards0.30.30.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
IF BrommapojkarnaBK Häcken
11Table position5
56.00%Possession42.30%
4.1Days of rest4.2
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, BK Häcken still look stronger — an away win is rated at 46%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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