All matches

Holywell Town FC — The New Saints FC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

Holywell Town FC
1.4DLLLD
—
The New Saints FC
3.7WWWWW
Outcome probability
97
Holywell Town FC1%Draw2%The New Saints FC97%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Holywell Town FC1%101.01—
XDraw2%40.98—
2The New Saints FC97%1.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.76

No64%

ours 1.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHolywell Town FCThe New Saints FCCombined
Goals scored0.502.172.67
Conceded1.670.332.00
Corners8.212.010.1
Cards1.01.02.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Holywell Town FCThe New Saints FC
    16Table position1
    40.40%Possession69.00%
    6.2Days of rest6.2
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, The New Saints FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 97%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Holywell Town FC

  • homeBriton Ferry Llansawel AFC1:1
  • awayHaverfordwest County AFC0:1
  • homeColwyn Bay FC0:5
  • awayCambrian & Clydach Vale FC1:2
  • homeTrefelin1:1

The New Saints FC

  • awayTrefelin3:1
  • homeLlandudno FC2:1
  • homeFlint Town United FC5:0
  • awayAirbus UK FC2:0
  • homeBarry Town United FC1:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1The New Saints FC11101029:531
2Penybont FC1183022:927
3Connah's Quay Nomads FC1181227:825
4Caernarfon Town FC1172235:1323
5Colwyn Bay FC1171321:1422
6Barry Town United FC1171326:2022
7Cardiff Metropolitan University FC1153322:1318
8Cambrian & Clydach Vale FC1153321:2318
9Llandudno FC1151521:1816
10Airbus UK FC1150618:1715
11Haverfordwest County AFC113177:1610
12Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC1123610:209
13Flint Town United FC1112811:245
14Trefelin110385:273
15Ammanford AFC110387:313
16Holywell Town FC1102912:362

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.