Holywell Town FC — Penybont FC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier LeagueOctober 23 at 06:45 PM

Holywell Town FC

1.4DLLLD

—

Penybont FC

2.5WWWWW

Outcome probability

1477

Holywell Town FC9%Draw14%Penybont FC77%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Holywell Town FC9%11.68—

XDraw14%6.92—

2Penybont FC77%1.30—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.06

No51%

ours 1.94

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHolywell Town FCPenybont FCCombined

Goals scored0.331.832.16

Conceded1.500.672.17

Corners7.57.87.6

Cards1.02.33.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Holywell Town FCPenybont FC
16Table position2
40.00%Possession59.80%
14Days of rest14
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Penybont FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 77%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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