All matches

Hertha BSC — SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 2. Bundesliga

Germany, 2. Bundesliga

Hertha BSC
2.3WWWWW
—
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.3DDLWL
Outcome probability
592219
Hertha BSC59%Draw22%SpVgg Greuther Fürth19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hertha BSC59%1.70—
XDraw22%4.53—
2SpVgg Greuther Fürth19%5.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.56

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHertha BSCSpVgg Greuther FürthCombined
Goals scored2.831.504.33
Conceded1.171.833.00
Corners10.710.310.5
Cards2.71.23.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Hertha BSCSpVgg Greuther Fürth
    1Table position12
    48.50%Possession49.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Hertha BSC: a home win is rated at 59%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Hertha BSC

  • awaySG Dynamo Dresden2:1
  • awayVfL Osnabrück3:1
  • home1. FC Magdeburg2:1
  • awayBraunschweiger TSV Eintracht 18955:3
  • home1. FC Heidenheim 18464:1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • home1. FC Magdeburg1:1
  • awayVfL Bochum 18481:1
  • home1. FC Heidenheim 18460:1
  • awayFC Energie Cottbus4:3
  • home1. FC Nürnberg2:4

Head to head

  • 05/10/262. Bundesliga2:1
  • 12/12/252. Bundesliga3:3
  • 05/04/252. Bundesliga1:0
  • 12/07/242. Bundesliga1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Hertha BSC660017:718
21. FC Nürnberg651016:616
31. FC Heidenheim 1846641114:1213
4VfL Wolfsburg632115:811
51. FC Kaiserslautern63216:411
61. FC Magdeburg631211:910
7FC Energie Cottbus622214:138
8FC St. Pauli61418:87
9VfL Bochum 184862135:67
10Hannoverscher Sportverein 189662137:97
11VfL Osnabrück62139:127
12SpVgg Greuther Fürth61329:116
13DSC Arminia Bielefeld612310:125
14Karlsruher SC61236:125

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.