Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.71
No42%
ours 2.40
All matches
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Hertha BSC — DSC Arminia Bielefeld, 2. Bundesliga
Germany, 2. Bundesliga
Hertha BSC
2.3WWWWWDSC Arminia Bielefeld
1.5DLDLWOutcome probability
542422
Hertha BSC54%Draw24%DSC Arminia Bielefeld22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hertha BSC1.87—
XDraw4.18—
2DSC Arminia Bielefeld4.45—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricHertha BSCDSC Arminia BielefeldCombined
Goals scored2.001.003.00
Conceded1.001.672.67
Corners12.310.511.4
Cards2.51.84.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Hertha BSCDSC Arminia Bielefeld1Table position137.8Days of rest649.00%Possession48.00%2Matches in 14 days2 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Hertha BSC: a home win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
72%
Form and context
Hertha BSC
- awaySG Dynamo Dresden2:1
- awayVfL Osnabrück3:1
- home1. FC Magdeburg2:1
- awayBraunschweiger TSV Eintracht 18955:3
- home1. FC Heidenheim 18464:1
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
- home1. FC Heidenheim 18462:2
- awaySV Darmstadt 18981:2
- homeFC St. Pauli2:2
- away1. FC Nürnberg1:4
- homeFC Energie Cottbus3:0
Head to head
- 05/17/262. Bundesliga1:6
- 12/19/252. Bundesliga1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Hertha BSC660017:718
Hertha BSC660017:7182
1. FC Nürnberg651016:616
1. FC Nürnberg651016:6163
1. FC Heidenheim 1846641114:1213
1. FC Heidenheim 1846641114:12134
VfL Wolfsburg632115:811
VfL Wolfsburg632115:8115
1. FC Kaiserslautern63216:411
1. FC Kaiserslautern63216:4116
1. FC Magdeburg631211:910
1. FC Magdeburg631211:9107
FC Energie Cottbus622214:138
FC Energie Cottbus622214:1388
FC St. Pauli61418:87
FC St. Pauli61418:879
VfL Bochum 184862135:67
VfL Bochum 184862135:6710
Hannoverscher Sportverein 189662137:97
Hannoverscher Sportverein 189662137:9711
VfL Osnabrück62139:127
VfL Osnabrück62139:12712
SpVgg Greuther Fürth61329:116
SpVgg Greuther Fürth61329:11613DSC Arminia Bielefeld612310:125
DSC Arminia Bielefeld612310:12514
Karlsruher SC61236:125
Karlsruher SC61236:12515
Braunschweiger TSV Eintracht 1895611412:134
Braunschweiger TSV Eintracht 1895611412:134