Herrera FC — Alianza FC Panama, LPF

Panama, LPF09:00 PM

Herrera FC

0.6LLLLD

—

Alianza FC Panama

2.2DLDDW

Outcome probability

2563

Herrera FC12%Draw25%Alianza FC Panama63%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Herrera FC12%8.10—

XDraw25%4.06—

2Alianza FC Panama63%1.59—

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHerrera FCAlianza FC PanamaCombined

Goals scored0.831.001.83

Conceded3.000.833.83

Corners7.89.28.5

Cards2.01.53.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Herrera FCAlianza FC Panama
2Matches in 14 days1
11Table position7
8.8Days of rest5.8
41.70%Possession45.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Alianza FC Panama still look stronger — an away win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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