Heracles Almelo — RKC Waalwijk, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

Heracles Almelo

1.1WLWWW

—

RKC Waalwijk

1.7LWWWD

Outcome probability

542125

Heracles Almelo54%Draw21%RKC Waalwijk25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Heracles Almelo54%1.86—

XDraw21%4.77—

2RKC Waalwijk25%3.95—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHeracles AlmeloRKC WaalwijkCombined

Goals scored2.172.334.50

Conceded0.671.171.84

Corners10.88.49.6

Cards1.21.42.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Heracles AlmeloRKC Waalwijk
1Table position7
7Days of rest6
54.60%Possession49.60%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Heracles Almelo: a home win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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