All matches

Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi — Kuopion Palloseura, Veikkausliiga

Finland, Veikkausliiga

Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi
2.4DDWWL
—
Kuopion Palloseura
3.1WDDLW
Outcome probability
322641
Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi32%Draw26%Kuopion Palloseura41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi32%3.11—
XDraw26%3.78—
2Kuopion Palloseura41%2.42—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.26

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHelsingin JalkapalloklubiKuopion PalloseuraCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded0.330.000.33
Corners9.314.011.7
Cards0.31.01.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Helsingin JalkapalloklubiKuopion Palloseura
    3Table position1
    8Days of rest2.8
    2Matches in 14 days3
    54.00%Possession51.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Kuopion Palloseura travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi

  • awayIF Gnistan1:1
  • awayKuopion Palloseura0:0
  • homeFC Inter Turku2:1
  • awayTampereen Ilves2:1
  • homeIF Gnistan2:3

Kuopion Palloseura

  • awayVaasan Palloseura2:0
  • homeHelsingin Jalkapalloklubi0:0
  • awayIF Gnistan1:1
  • awayFC Inter Turku0:1
  • homeShamrock Rovers FC1:0

Head to head

  • 09/13/26Veikkausliiga0:0
  • 06/27/26Veikkausliiga0:4
  • 04/26/26Veikkausliiga1:1
  • 11/09/25Veikkausliiga0:2
  • 10/19/25Veikkausliiga1:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Kuopion Palloseura25139341:2448
2FC Inter Turku25139332:1848
3Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi25126739:2942
4IF Gnistan25118640:3241
5FC Lahti25106930:2436

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.