All matches

Heart of Midlothian FC — FC Nordsjælland, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

Heart of Midlothian FC
2.6DLWWW
—
FC Nordsjælland
2.6LWDLW
Outcome probability
382734
Heart of Midlothian FC38%Draw27%FC Nordsjælland34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Heart of Midlothian FC38%2.60—
XDraw27%3.65—
2FC Nordsjælland34%2.92—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHeart of Midlothian FCFC NordsjællandCombined
Goals scored1.501.332.83
Conceded1.001.502.50
Corners11.66.69.1
Cards1.41.83.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Heart of Midlothian FCFC Nordsjælland
    95Table position2
    5.2Days of rest6.1
    59.00%Possession50.80%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Heart of Midlothian FC: a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

Heart of Midlothian FC

  • awayKilmarnock FC1:1
  • awayFalkirk FC1:2
  • homeDundee FC2:1
  • awayHibernian FC3:1
  • homeSaint Johnstone FC2:1

FC Nordsjælland

  • awayViborg FF1:4
  • homeAarhus Gymnastikforening2:0
  • awayFC Midtjylland2:2
  • awayFC København0:2
  • homeBrøndby IF3:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AFC Ajax651022:1016
2FC Nordsjælland650117:315
3FK Partizan Beograd650113:515
4SK Rapid Wien642019:814
5FC København642017:614
6FC Lugano642013:514
7Sporting Braga64208:014
8Riga FC642012:614
9FK Borac Banja Luka641114:713
10FC Inter Turku834111:1013
11KF Drita633014:512
12FC Midtjylland440011:312
13FK Jablonec 64029:512
14Panathinaikos FC633011:812
15KS Dinamo Tirana832315:911
16KS Raków Częstochowa632112:611
17SK Brann632113:911
18HNK Hajduk Split431014:610
19KF Shkendija631211:510
20FK Rīgas Futbola skola631210:710
21Motherwell FC631210:810
22FK Austria Wien63128:610
23KAA Gent62405:310
24HNK Rijeka63125:710
25Tallinna FC Levadia430113:49
26Apollon Limassol430110:49
27FC Maxline Vitebsk43017:39
28FK Auda Riga43018:79
29VMFD Žalgiris Vilnius630314:169
30Inter Club d'Escaldes42208:28
31Hapoel Tel Aviv FC62227:58
32FC Sion622214:138
33Hibernian FC62228:78
34Tampereen Ilves62226:58
35NSÍ Runavík62228:98
36Paide Linnameeskond62227:88
37FC Twente421113:57
38Helsingin Jalkapalloklubi42119:37
39FC Vaduz42119:47
40Zira IK42117:27
41Pyunik FC42114:17
42UMF Stjarnan42117:57
43Tromsø IL42117:57
44KF Ballkani42117:67
45FC Dinamo Minsk62135:57
46Bohemian FC62138:97
47FC Dinamo Tbilisi42118:97
48Nõmme Kalju FC42117:87
49DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda42117:97
50SC Freiburg22007:26
51FC Sankt Gallen 1879420210:66
52AS Monaco FC22007:36
53Ujvara e Malishevës42029:66
54GKS Katowice42026:66
55Beitar Jerusalem FC42026:66
56Qarabağ Ağdam FK42024:56
57Don Denis FC Santa Coloma42027:96
58FK Liepāja42024:66
59FC UNA Strassen42023:56
60M-Perruquers Atlètic Club d'Escaldes42024:86
61ETO FC41218:55
62FC Artsakh41216:65
63Brighton & Hove Albion FC21104:04
64Paphos FC21105:34
65Kuopion Palloseura21102:14
66Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio21101:04
67Shelbourne FC41129:94
68IFK Göteborg41125:54
69SCS CFR 1907 Cluj41125:84
70FK Velež Mostar41122:54
71Valur Reykjavík41123:94
72Debreceni VSC41122:84
73Getafe Club de Fútbol21014:33
74Lincoln Red Imps FC21013:23
75AEK Larnaca21013:33
76FC Koper21013:33
77The New Saints FC21011:13
78Rangers FC21011:13
79FK Sileks21011:13
80NK Varaždin21013:43
81AŠK Bravo Publikum21013:43
82Neftçi PFC Bakı21013:43
83MŠK Žilina21013:43
84Larne FC21012:33
85FK CSKA 1948 Sofia40312:33
86SS Virtus21012:33
87FC Dynamo Kyiv21011:23
88FK Astana21012:43
89Alashkert FC40314:73
90KS Vllaznia Shkodër21012:63
91FC BATE Borisov40312:63
92GAIS21011:63
93FC Dila Gori41033:93
94Tallinna FC Flora41031:73
95Heart of Midlothian FC20204:42
96FK Yelimay Semey20203:32
97FK Panevėžys20202:22

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.