All matches

Haverfordwest — Caernarfon Town, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

Haverfordwest
2.0LLWWD
—
Caernarfon Town
2.2DWDWW
Outcome probability
182260
Haverfordwest18%Draw22%Caernarfon Town60%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Haverfordwest18%5.65—
XDraw22%4.45—
2Caernarfon Town60%1.67—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHaverfordwestCaernarfon TownCombined
Goals scored0.833.334.16
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners8.012.010.0
Cards1.42.43.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    HaverfordwestCaernarfon Town
    11Table position4
    44.20%Possession67.00%
    3Matches in 14 days2
    6.2Days of rest6.2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Caernarfon Town FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Haverfordwest

  • awayCardiff Metropolitan University0:1
  • awayColwyn Bay0:1
  • homeHolywell Town1:0
  • homeBriton Ferry Llansawel3:1
  • awayConnah's Quay1:1

Caernarfon Town

  • awayCardiff Metropolitan University2:2
  • homeCambrian & Clydach Vale9:1
  • awayLlandudno1:1
  • awayAmmanford5:0
  • homeFlint Town United3:0

Head to head

  • 11/08/25Welsh Premier League2:2
  • 08/30/25Welsh Premier League1:1
  • 05/18/25Welsh Premier League3:1
  • 03/29/25Welsh Premier League1:1
  • 02/08/25Welsh Premier League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Penybont1183022:927
3Connah's Quay1181227:825
4Caernarfon Town1172235:1323
5Colwyn Bay1171321:1422
6Barry Town United1171326:2022
7Cardiff Metropolitan University1153322:1318
8Cambrian & Clydach Vale1153321:2318
9Llandudno1151521:1816
10Airbus UK1150618:1715
11Haverfordwest113177:1610
12Briton Ferry Llansawel1123610:209
13Flint Town United1112811:245

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.