All matches

Harju Jalgpallikool — Pärnu JK Vaprus, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Harju Jalgpallikool
1.4DWWLW
—
Pärnu JK Vaprus
1.3LLLLW
Outcome probability
482131
Harju Jalgpallikool48%Draw21%Pärnu JK Vaprus31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Harju Jalgpallikool48%2.09—
XDraw21%4.73—
2Pärnu JK Vaprus31%3.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.39

No58%

ours 1.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHarju JalgpallikoolPärnu JK VaprusCombined
Goals scored0.830.671.50
Conceded0.832.002.83
Corners12.010.311.1
Cards3.01.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Harju JalgpallikoolPärnu JK Vaprus
    53.80%Possession43.30%
    6Table position7
    4.9Days of rest4.9
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Harju Jalgpallikool look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Harju Jalgpallikool

  • homeFC Kuressaare0:0
  • awayPaide Linnameeskond2:1
  • awayPärnu JK Vaprus3:2
  • homeJK Tammeka Tartu0:2
  • awayFC Nõmme United2:1

Pärnu JK Vaprus

  • awayTallinna FC Flora2:3
  • awayPaide Linnameeskond0:2
  • awayTallinna FC Levadia0:4
  • homeHarju Jalgpallikool2:3
  • homeFC Nõmme United1:0

Head to head

  • 09/09/26Meistriliiga3:2
  • 05/16/26Meistriliiga1:2
  • 04/04/26Meistriliiga2:0
  • 09/27/25Meistriliiga1:2
  • 07/25/25Meistriliiga2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Nõmme Kalju FC29155952:2750
5JK Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Pärnu JK Vaprus29941638:5831
8FC Kuressaare29851631:4929
9FC Nõmme United29911947:6828

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.