All matches

Hammarby IF — IK Sirius Fotboll, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

Hammarby IF
2.9WWDLW
—
IK Sirius Fotboll
2.4WWLLL
Outcome probability
562123
Hammarby IF56%Draw21%IK Sirius Fotboll23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hammarby IF56%1.78—
XDraw21%4.75—
2IK Sirius Fotboll23%4.40—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71

No42%

ours 2.40

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHammarby IFIK Sirius FotbollCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded0.330.170.50
Corners9.09.59.3
Cards1.71.02.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Hammarby IFIK Sirius Fotboll
    64.80%Possession31.00%
    2Table position1
    4.1Days of rest5.2
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Hammarby IF: a home win is rated at 56%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Hammarby IF

  • awayDegerfors1:0
  • homeIF Brommapojkarna3:1
  • awayÖrgryte IS1:1
  • awayAIK Fotboll2:3
  • homeGAIS2:0

IK Sirius Fotboll

  • awayÖrgryte IS2:1
  • awayVästerås SK Fotboll1:0
  • homeMalmö FF0:1
  • homeBK Häcken0:3
  • awayMjällby AIF3:4

Head to head

  • 04/13/26Allsvenskan0:2
  • 08/24/25Allsvenskan1:3
  • 05/14/25Allsvenskan3:2
  • 10/26/24Allsvenskan3:0
  • 05/26/24Allsvenskan3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1IK Sirius Fotboll21153350:2848
2Hammarby IF22134549:2043
3Djurgårdens IF21122745:2138
4IF Elfsborg22107531:2237

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.