Halmstads BK — Malmö FF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 28 at 06:00 PM

Halmstads BK

0.9WLLWD

—

Malmö FF

2.4LWDWL

Outcome probability

182161

Halmstads BK18%Draw21%Malmö FF61%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Halmstads BK18%5.42—

XDraw21%4.87—

2Malmö FF61%1.64—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.20

No54%

ours 1.84

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHalmstads BKMalmö FFCombined

Goals scored0.500.671.17

Conceded0.830.501.33

Corners13.010.011.5

Cards0.71.32.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Halmstads BKMalmö FF
16Table position7
56.30%Possession46.70%
5Days of rest5
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Malmö FF still look stronger — an away win is rated at 61%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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