Halmstads BK — Hammarby IF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 18 at 02:30 PM

Halmstads BK

0.9WLLWD

—

Hammarby IF

2.9WWDLW

Outcome probability

1476

Halmstads BK10%Draw14%Hammarby IF76%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Halmstads BK10%10.25—

XDraw14%6.97—

2Hammarby IF76%1.32—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.64

No62%

ours 1.61

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHalmstads BKHammarby IFCombined

Goals scored0.831.502.33

Conceded1.000.831.83

Corners13.68.811.2

Cards1.01.22.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Halmstads BKHammarby IF
16Table position2
5.9Days of rest7.1
55.50%Possession51.70%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Hammarby IF travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 76%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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