Both teams to score
Yes28%
ours 3.57
No72%
ours 1.39
All matches
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Grêmio Novorizontino — Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta, Serie B
Brazil, Serie B
Grêmio Novorizontino
2.6DLDWWAssociacao Atletica Ponte Preta
0.4LWLLLOutcome probability
88
Grêmio Novorizontino88%Draw9%Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta4%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Grêmio Novorizontino1.14—
XDraw11.29—
2Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta28.09—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGrêmio NovorizontinoAssociacao Atletica Ponte PretaCombined
Goals scored0.830.171.00
Conceded0.671.672.34
Corners12.59.310.9
Cards1.52.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Grêmio NovorizontinoAssociacao Atletica Ponte Preta4Table position2054.00%Possession33.50%2Matches in 14 days34Days of rest5.9 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Grêmio Novorizontino: a home win is rated at 88%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Form and context
Grêmio Novorizontino
- homeSão Bernardo FC0:0
- awayCeará SC1:2
- homeCuiabá EC1:1
- awayBotafogo FC Ribeirão Preto3:1
- homeAvai FC3:1
Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta
- awayBotafogo FC Ribeirão Preto0:2
- homeClube de Regatas Brasil1:0
- awayLondrina EC0:6
- awaySC do Recife0:2
- homeSão Bernardo FC0:2
Head to head
- 06/22/26Serie B2:0
- 10/01/24Serie B2:1
- 06/15/24Serie B0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
EC Juventude30158732:1953
EC Juventude30158732:19533
Fortaleza EC301410635:2652
Fortaleza EC301410635:26524Grêmio Novorizontino30149749:2751
Grêmio Novorizontino30149749:27515
Criciuma EC30148831:2750
Criciuma EC30148831:27506
AC Goianiense301310737:2749
AC Goianiense301310737:27497
Operário Ferroviário EC30139843:3848
Operário Ferroviário EC30139843:38488
Clube de Regatas Brasil301461045:4148
Clube de Regatas Brasil301461045:41489
SC do Recife301111840:3244
SC do Recife301111840:324410
Cuiabá EC301013730:2543
Cuiabá EC301013730:254311
São Bernardo FC301191040:3142
São Bernardo FC301191040:314212
Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)301012836:3342
Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)301012836:334213
Goiás EC301261230:3642
Goiás EC301261230:364214
Clube Náutico Capibaribe301181138:3741
Clube Náutico Capibaribe301181138:374115
Ceará SC30991233:3936
Ceará SC30991233:393616
Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto30981334:3635
Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto30981334:363517
Avai FC30861630:4130
Avai FC30861630:413018
Londrina EC30771639:4328
Londrina EC30771639:432819
América FC - Minas Gerais30452121:5017
América FC - Minas Gerais30452121:501720Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta30342317:6413
Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta30342317:6413