UEFA Nations League

GreeceВНВПП
—
NetherlandsННВВН
1Greece49%model2.05
XDraw26%model3.91
2Netherlands26%model3.90
calculated at 07:47, 139 мс

Outcome

Greece49%
Draw26%
Netherlands26%

Corners

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Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

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Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Greece vs Netherlands

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Home advantage and current form favour Greece: a home win is rated at 49%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Greece

WDWLL
  • awaySerbia2:1
  • awayBelarus0:0
  • homeScotland3:2
  • awayDenmark1:3
  • awayScotland1:3

Netherlands

DDWWD
  • homeGermany1:1
  • homeMorocco1:1
  • awayTunisia3:1
  • homeSweden5:1
  • homeJapan2:2

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
3Norway11003:23
4Malta11002:13
5Greece11002:13
6Portugal11001:03
7Kosovo11001:03
8Germany10101:11
9Netherlands10101:11
10Denmark10012:30
11Serbia10011:20
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.