Greece — Germany, UEFA Nations League

UEFA Nations League

GreeceВНВПП
—
GermanyННПВВ
1Greece51%model1.96
XDraw23%model4.33
2Germany26%model3.88

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

Expected goals, corners, cards and referee data — with a subscription

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calculated at 20:14, 171 мс

Outcome

Greece51%
Draw23%
Germany26%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Greece vs Germany

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Greece look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Greece

WDWLL
  • awaySerbia2:1
  • awayBelarus0:0
  • homeScotland3:2
  • awayDenmark1:3
  • awayScotland1:3

Germany

DDLWW
  • awayNetherlands1:1
  • homeParaguay1:1
  • awayEcuador1:2
  • homeIvory Coast2:1
  • homeCuraçao7:1

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
14Luxembourg11002:13
15Malta11002:13
16Greece11002:13
17Sweden11002:13
18Montenegro11002:13
19Northern Ireland11001:03
20Portugal11001:03
21Ukraine11001:03
22France11001:03
23Kosovo21012:33
24Kazakhstan10101:11
25Iceland10101:11
26Azerbaijan10101:11
27Faroe Islands10101:11
28Germany10101:11
29Estonia10101:11
30Scotland10100:01
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.