All matches

Goiás EC — Athletic Club (Minas Gerais), Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

Goiás EC
2.2LWWLL
—
Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)
1.7DDWLW
Outcome probability
502723
Goiás EC50%Draw27%Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Goiás EC50%2.01—
XDraw27%3.65—
2Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)23%4.38—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.21

No55%

ours 1.83

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGoiás ECAthletic Club (Minas Gerais)Combined
Goals scored0.831.672.50
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners10.66.28.4
Cards3.01.44.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Goiás ECAthletic Club (Minas Gerais)
    56.60%Possession44.40%
    13Table position12
    5Days of rest5
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Goiás EC: a home win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Goiás EC

  • homeAC Goianiense0:1
  • homeAvai FC2:1
  • awayBotafogo FC Ribeirão Preto3:1
  • awayVila Nova FC0:2
  • homeFortaleza EC0:1

Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)

  • awayFortaleza EC2:2
  • homeBotafogo FC Ribeirão Preto1:1
  • awayEC Juventude2:0
  • awayCuiabá EC0:3
  • homeVila Nova FC5:0

Head to head

  • 06/14/26Serie B1:1
  • 10/11/25Serie B1:1
  • 06/24/25Serie B1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Cuiabá EC301013730:2543
11São Bernardo FC301191040:3142
12Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)301012836:3342
13Goiás EC301261230:3642
14Clube Náutico Capibaribe301181138:3741
15Ceará SC30991233:3936

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.