Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.71
No42%
ours 2.40
All matches
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Go Ahead Eagles — Sparta Rotterdam, Eredivisie
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Go Ahead Eagles
1.8DDDLWSparta Rotterdam
1.5LLDLDOutcome probability
562519
Go Ahead Eagles56%Draw25%Sparta Rotterdam19%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Go Ahead Eagles1.80—
XDraw4.00—
2Sparta Rotterdam5.15—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGo Ahead EaglesSparta RotterdamCombined
Goals scored2.001.673.67
Conceded2.172.674.84
Corners10.812.711.8
Cards0.80.81.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Go Ahead EaglesSparta Rotterdam9Table position1250.80%Possession46.20%14Days of rest140Matches in 14 days0 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Go Ahead Eagles: a home win is rated at 56%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Home
70%
Form and context
Go Ahead Eagles
- awayNijmegen Eendracht Combinatie1:1
- homeFC Groningen1:1
- awayFC Utrecht3:3
- awayAlkmaar Zaanstreek2:5
- homeHFC ADO Den Haag3:1
Sparta Rotterdam
- homeSC Heerenveen0:4
- awayPSV Eindhoven1:4
- homePEC Zwolle2:2
- awaySBV Excelsior1:2
- homeFC Utrecht3:3
Head to head
- 05/03/26Eredivisie2:2
- 08/23/25Eredivisie0:3
- 02/14/25Eredivisie1:0
- 09/15/24Eredivisie2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
SBV Excelsior732215:911
SBV Excelsior732215:9118
FC Groningen732215:1311
FC Groningen732215:13119Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
Go Ahead Eagles724116:141010
SC Heerenveen723211:99
SC Heerenveen723211:9911
Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie722312:138
Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie722312:13812Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
Sparta Rotterdam712410:17513
SC Telstar71245:125
SC Telstar71245:12514
SC Cambuur Leeuwarden712410:195
SC Cambuur Leeuwarden712410:195