Gil Vicente FC — FC Porto, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 24 at 07:30 PM

Gil Vicente FC

1.8DLLDW

—

FC Porto

4.0WWLWW

Outcome probability

1872

Gil Vicente FC9%Draw18%FC Porto72%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Gil Vicente FC9%11.05—

XDraw18%5.41—

2FC Porto72%1.38—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.76

No64%

ours 1.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGil Vicente FCFC PortoCombined

Goals scored0.671.171.84

Conceded0.830.671.50

Corners9.09.39.2

Cards1.81.73.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Gil Vicente FCFC Porto
0Matches in 14 days2
9Table position1
14Days of rest4
51.20%Possession48.30%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Porto travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 72%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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