UEFA Nations League

GermanyННПВВ
—
SerbiaПВПВП
1Germany47%model2.13bookmaker1.50
XDraw28%model3.52bookmaker3.00
2Serbia25%model4.06bookmaker1.50
calculated at 07:47, 100 мс

Outcome

Germany47%
Draw28%
Serbia25%

Corners

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Total 2.5

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Both teams to score

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Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Germany vs Serbia

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Home advantage and current form favour Germany: a home win is rated at 47%. Bookmakers price this at 1.50.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Germany

DDLWW
  • awayNetherlands1:1
  • homeParaguay1:1
  • awayEcuador1:2
  • homeIvory Coast2:1
  • homeCuraçao7:1

Serbia

LWLWL
  • homeGreece1:2
  • homeLatvia2:1
  • awayEngland0:2
  • awayAndorra3:1
  • homeAlbania0:1

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
6Portugal11001:03
7Kosovo11001:03
8Germany10101:11
9Netherlands10101:11
10Denmark10012:30
11Serbia10011:20
12Andorra10011:20
13Republic of Ireland10010:10
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.