All matches

Genclerbirligi — Amedspor, Süper Lig

Turkey, Süper Lig

Genclerbirligi
1.5LLLDW
—
Amedspor
2.1WWDWL
Outcome probability
192457
Genclerbirligi19%Draw24%Amedspor57%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Genclerbirligi19%36%5.342.79-17.2
XDraw24%27%4.143.67-3.1
2Amedspor57%40%1.752.50+17.1

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81book 1.59

No45%

ours 2.23book 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGenclerbirligiAmedsporCombined
Goals scored0.832.503.33
Conceded2.171.173.34
Corners11.38.810.1
Cards1.73.24.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    GenclerbirligiAmedspor
    13Table position1
    43.80%Possession45.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Amed Sportif Faaliyetler Kulübü travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 57%. Bookmakers price this at 2.50.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

67%1.35
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Genclerbirligi

  • awayIstanbul Basaksehir0:4
  • homeKasimpasa1:2
  • awayTrabzonspor0:5
  • homeErzurumspor1:1
  • awayGoztepe1:0

Amedspor

  • homeBesiktas3:2
  • homeIstanbul Basaksehir5:0
  • awayKasimpasa2:2
  • homeTrabzonspor2:1
  • awayKocaelispor0:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Amedspor641115:713
2Galatasaray641113:1013
3Besiktas640214:712
4Kocaelispor64027:412
5Alanyaspor63218:611
6Fenerbahce631216:610
7Trabzonspor631213:510
8Kasimpasa62407:510
9Caykur Rizespor63127:610
10Gaziantep62227:78
11Corum FK621313:127
12Istanbul Basaksehir621310:117
13Genclerbirligi62135:137
14Erzurumspor62133:117
15Konyaspor61144:84

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.