Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.27
All matches
—
GD Estoril Praia — Moreirense FC, Liga NOS
Portugal, Liga NOS
GD Estoril Praia
1.4LLDLLMoreirense FC
1.6DWLLWOutcome probability
403030
GD Estoril Praia40%Draw30%Moreirense FC30%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1GD Estoril Praia2.50—
XDraw3.36—
2Moreirense FC3.31—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGD Estoril PraiaMoreirense FCCombined
Goals scored0.331.001.33
Conceded1.171.332.50
Corners9.07.48.2
Cards2.42.04.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
GD Estoril PraiaMoreirense FC18Table position1246.20%Possession33.20%14Days of rest140Matches in 14 days0 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
GD Estoril Praia look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 9.5
71%
Form and context
GD Estoril Praia
- homeCasa Pia AC1:2
- awaySporting Braga0:1
- homeFC Arouca0:0
- awaySL Benfica1:2
- homeRio Ave FC0:2
Moreirense FC
- awayVitória Guimarães SC1:1
- homeCS Marítimo Funchal3:1
- homeSL Benfica0:4
- awayFC Porto1:2
- awayCasa Pia AC1:0
Head to head
- 04/20/26Liga NOS0:1
- 12/07/25Liga NOS3:3
- 05/11/25Liga NOS2:2
- 12/28/24Liga NOS2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Alverca72239:118
Alverca72239:11811
CS Marítimo Funchal72238:128
CS Marítimo Funchal72238:12812Moreirense FC72238:148
Moreirense FC72238:14813
FC Famalicão71429:77
FC Famalicão71429:7714
Vitória Guimarães SC71245:85
Vitória Guimarães SC71245:8515
CD Nacional Funchal71157:154
CD Nacional Funchal71157:15416
Rio Ave FC71155:154
Rio Ave FC71155:15417
Casa Pia AC71153:164
Casa Pia AC71153:16418GD Estoril Praia70253:102
GD Estoril Praia70253:102