Gandzasar — Shirak, Armenian Premier League

Armenia, Armenian Premier LeagueOctober 10 at 12:00 AM

Gandzasar

1.6LLDLD

—

Shirak

0.9LLWWL

Outcome probability

442729

Gandzasar44%Draw27%Shirak29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Gandzasar44%2.28—

XDraw27%3.73—

2Shirak29%3.42—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes31%

ours 3.20

No69%

ours 1.45

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGandzasarShirakCombined

Goals scored0.331.331.66

Conceded1.831.002.83

Corners9.814.011.9

Cards2.31.23.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
GandzasarShirak
12Table position7
36.60%Possession36.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Gandzasar look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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