Galatasaray — Kasimpasa, Süper Lig

Turkey, Süper LigOctober 9 at 05:00 PM

Galatasaray

3.7LWLWW

—

Kasimpasa

1.8DWDDW

Outcome probability

Galatasaray80%Draw13%Kasimpasa7%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Galatasaray80%1.25—

XDraw13%7.47—

2Kasimpasa7%14.79—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.07

No52%

ours 1.93

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGalatasarayKasimpasaCombined

Goals scored2.001.173.17

Conceded1.830.832.66

Corners8.511.09.8

Cards2.02.84.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
GalatasarayKasimpasa
2Table position8
57.80%Possession41.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Galatasaray look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 80%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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