France — Belgium, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations League06:45 PM

France

2.9WWLLW

—

Belgium

2.4LWLWW

Outcome probability

512524

France51%Draw25%Belgium24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1France51%1.95—

XDraw25%3.99—

2Belgium24%4.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.34

No57%

ours 1.75

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFranceBelgiumCombined

Goals scored1.171.672.84

Conceded1.330.832.16

Corners8.38.08.1

Cards1.32.03.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FranceBelgium
6Table position23
51.80%Possession43.00%
3Days of rest3
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
France look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans