All matches

Fram Reykjavík — ÍA Akranes, Úrvalsdeild

Iceland, Úrvalsdeild

Fram Reykjavík
2.3DLDDW
—
ÍA Akranes
1.9WLWDD
Outcome probability
552224
Fram Reykjavík55%Draw22%ÍA Akranes24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fram Reykjavík55%1.83—
XDraw22%4.63—
2ÍA Akranes24%4.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes69%

ours 1.44

No31%

ours 3.26

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFram ReykjavíkÍA AkranesCombined
Goals scored1.831.833.66
Conceded2.001.673.67
Corners13.815.014.4
Cards1.82.03.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Fram ReykjavíkÍA Akranes
    3Table position5
    8Days of rest7
    48.20%Possession46.40%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Fram Reykjavík: a home win is rated at 55%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Both teams to score: Yes

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Fram Reykjavík

  • awayKeflavík ÍF2:2
  • homeBreidablik UBK1:3
  • awayVíkingur Reykjavík2:2
  • homeKA Akureyri2:2
  • awayBreidablik UBK4:3

ÍA Akranes

  • homeBreidablik UBK4:1
  • awayKR Reykjavík1:5
  • homeKR Reykjavík3:1
  • awayValur Reykjavík2:2
  • homeFH Hafnarfjördur1:1

Head to head

  • 06/29/26Úrvalsdeild2:0
  • 04/12/26Úrvalsdeild3:3
  • 07/05/25Úrvalsdeild1:0
  • 04/06/25Úrvalsdeild0:1
  • 08/12/24Úrvalsdeild0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Víkingur Reykjavík24185173:2359
2KR Reykjavík24145580:5247
3Fram Reykjavík24137459:4746
4Breidablik UBK2496947:4633
5ÍA Akranes2496944:4733
6Valur Reykjavík24941144:4731
7UMF Stjarnan24941146:5531

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.