Fortaleza CEIF FC — Millonarios FC SA, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera AOctober 9 at 01:10 AM

Fortaleza CEIF FC

1.6DLDDL

—

Millonarios FC SA

2.6DDWWD

Outcome probability

273043

Fortaleza CEIF FC27%Draw30%Millonarios FC SA43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Fortaleza CEIF FC27%3.73—

XDraw30%3.30—

2Millonarios FC SA43%2.33—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.27

No56%

ours 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFortaleza CEIF FCMillonarios FC SACombined

Goals scored1.331.673.00

Conceded2.001.003.00

Corners6.88.37.6

Cards2.22.24.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Fortaleza CEIF FCMillonarios FC SA
15Table position7
4.3Days of rest9
2Matches in 14 days1
46.40%Possession51.20%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Millonarios FC SA travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans