All matches

Flint Town United FC — Colwyn Bay FC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

Flint Town United FC
1.1WLLDL
—
Colwyn Bay FC
2.2WWWWL
Outcome probability
1870
Flint Town United FC12%Draw18%Colwyn Bay FC70%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Flint Town United FC12%8.33—
XDraw18%5.56—
2Colwyn Bay FC70%1.43—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96

No49%

ours 2.04

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFlint Town United FCColwyn Bay FCCombined
Goals scored0.832.173.00
Conceded2.170.672.84
Corners11.48.49.9
Cards1.42.03.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Flint Town United FCColwyn Bay FC
    13Table position5
    41.20%Possession54.40%
    7.1Days of rest7.1
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Colwyn Bay FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 70%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Flint Town United FC

  • homeAmmanford AFC3:0
  • awayAirbus UK FC1:4
  • awayThe New Saints FC0:5
  • homeCardiff Metropolitan University FC1:1
  • awayCaernarfon Town FC0:3

Colwyn Bay FC

  • homeHaverfordwest County AFC1:0
  • homeBarry Town United FC5:2
  • awayHolywell Town FC5:0
  • homeConnah's Quay Nomads FC2:1
  • awayPenybont FC0:1

Head to head

  • 01/01/26Welsh Premier League2:1
  • 10/07/25Welsh Premier League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Connah's Quay Nomads FC1181227:825
4Caernarfon Town FC1172235:1323
5Colwyn Bay FC1171321:1422
6Barry Town United FC1171326:2022
7Cardiff Metropolitan University FC1153322:1318
8Cambrian & Clydach Vale FC1153321:2318
9Llandudno FC1151521:1816
10Airbus UK FC1150618:1715
11Haverfordwest County AFC113177:1610
12Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC1123610:209
13Flint Town United FC1112811:245
14Trefelin110385:273
15Ammanford AFC110387:313

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.