Zemun — Zeleznicar Pancevo, SuperLiga

Serbia, SuperLigaOctober 10 at 12:00 AM

Zemun

1.5DDLLL

—

Zeleznicar Pancevo

2.1WLWLW

Outcome probability

172756

Zemun17%Draw27%Zeleznicar Pancevo56%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Zemun17%5.89—

XDraw27%3.72—

2Zeleznicar Pancevo56%1.78—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.74

No64%

ours 1.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricZemunZeleznicar PancevoCombined

Goals scored0.671.672.34

Conceded1.501.172.67

Corners8.88.38.6

Cards2.82.85.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
ZemunZeleznicar Pancevo
14Table position6
39.30%Possession61.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FK Železničar Pančevo still look stronger — an away win is rated at 56%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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