All matches

Yelimay — Aktobe, Kazakhstan Premier League

Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Premier League

Yelimay
2.5WWLLD
—
Aktobe
2.3DWWLW
Outcome probability
462530
Yelimay46%Draw25%Aktobe30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Yelimay46%51%2.191.96-5.5
XDraw25%23%4.064.32+1.4
2Aktobe30%32%3.363.11-2.4

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78book 1.56

No44%

ours 2.29book 2.30

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricYelimayAktobeCombined
Goals scored1.501.503.00
Conceded1.671.172.84
Corners9.29.59.3
Cards4.22.87.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    YelimayAktobe
    46.00%Possession61.70%
    6Table position5
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Yelimay Semey: a home win is rated at 46%. Bookmakers price this at 1.96.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

69%1.46
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Yelimay

  • awayTobol2:0
  • homeZhetysu Taldykorgan2:1
  • awayAstana0:4
  • homeKairat0:2
  • awayCaspiy2:2

Aktobe

  • homeUlytau Zhezkazgan2:2
  • awayCaspiy2:1
  • homeZhenys1:0
  • awayIrtysh Pavlodar1:2
  • awayKaisar Kyzylorda2:1

Head to head

  • 03/21/26Kazakhstan Premier League4:1
  • 08/10/25Kazakhstan Premier League2:1
  • 05/11/25Kazakhstan Premier League0:1
  • 08/31/24Kazakhstan Premier League3:1
  • 06/16/24Kazakhstan Premier League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Astana25146542:2548
4Okzhetpes Kokshetau26136741:3545
5Aktobe26126838:3142
6Yelimay25108735:3338
7Tobol261041233:3534
8Zhenys26881026:3232

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.