Tobol — Astana, Kazakhstan Premier League

Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Premier LeagueOctober 10 at 12:00 PM

Tobol

2.2LWWLW

—

Astana

3.1WLWWD

Outcome probability

312545

Tobol31%Draw25%Astana45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Tobol31%3.27—

XDraw25%4.04—

2Astana45%2.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.29

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTobolAstanaCombined

Goals scored2.001.833.83

Conceded1.170.832.00

Corners11.712.211.9

Cards2.32.04.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
TobolAstana
7Table position3
53.80%Possession59.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FK Astana travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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