FK Teplice — SK Líšeň, First League

Czech Republic, First LeagueOctober 24 at 01:00 PM

FK Teplice

1.9WLWWL

—

SK Líšeň

1.6DLLWL

Outcome probability

592318

FK Teplice59%Draw23%SK Líšeň18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Teplice59%1.69—

XDraw23%4.38—

2SK Líšeň18%5.57—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.16

No54%

ours 1.86

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK TepliceSK LíšeňCombined

Goals scored1.170.501.67

Conceded0.501.001.50

Corners9.08.38.6

Cards2.51.03.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK TepliceSK Líšeň
5Table position14
41.00%Possession53.30%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FK Teplice look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 59%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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