All matches

FK Sutjeska Nikšić — FK Bokelj Kotor, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Sutjeska Nikšić
2.4WWWDW
—
FK Bokelj Kotor
1.5WDWLD
Outcome probability
552520
FK Sutjeska Nikšić55%Draw25%FK Bokelj Kotor20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Sutjeska Nikšić55%1.83—
XDraw25%3.97—
2FK Bokelj Kotor20%4.97—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.71

No63%

ours 1.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Sutjeska NikšićFK Bokelj KotorCombined
Goals scored1.671.002.67
Conceded0.170.670.84
Corners11.48.29.8
Cards1.21.02.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Sutjeska NikšićFK Bokelj Kotor
    4Table position3
    50.60%Possession48.20%
    8Days of rest8
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Sutjeska Nikšić: a home win is rated at 55%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Sutjeska Nikšić

  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat2:0
  • homeFK Dečić2:0
  • homeFK Mornar Bar1:0
  • awayOFK Petrovac0:0
  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica5:1

FK Bokelj Kotor

  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica3:0
  • awayFK Jezero Plav1:1
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj2:1
  • awayFK Mornar Bar0:2
  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica0:0

Head to head

  • 08/09/26Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 05/02/26Montenegrin First League3:2
  • 03/07/26Montenegrin First League2:1
  • 11/01/25Montenegrin First League5:4
  • 08/30/25Montenegrin First League5:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj951315:1016
2FK Dečić943210:715
3FK Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.