FK Safa — Turan-T IK, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer LiqasıOctober 11 at 02:30 PM

FK Safa

1.7LLLLW

—

Turan-T IK

2.5WDWLD

Outcome probability

172855

FK Safa17%Draw28%Turan-T IK55%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FK Safa17%5.89—

XDraw28%3.62—

2Turan-T IK55%1.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes24%

ours 4.17

No76%

ours 1.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK SafaTuran-T IKCombined

Goals scored0.331.001.33

Conceded1.830.672.50

Corners8.58.28.3

Cards1.02.03.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FK SafaTuran-T IK
10Table position4
38.70%Possession49.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Turan-T IK still look stronger — an away win is rated at 55%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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