Radnicki Nis — Vojvodina, SuperLiga

Serbia, SuperLigaOctober 10 at 12:00 AM

Radnicki Nis

1.5LWLDL

—

Vojvodina

2.8DWWWW

Outcome probability

162658

Radnicki Nis16%Draw26%Vojvodina58%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Radnicki Nis16%6.25—

XDraw26%3.80—

2Vojvodina58%1.73—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.95

No49%

ours 2.05

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRadnicki NisVojvodinaCombined

Goals scored0.672.002.67

Conceded1.171.002.17

Corners8.310.09.2

Cards3.32.76.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Radnicki NisVojvodina
12Table position2
42.70%Possession51.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FK Vojvodina Novi Sad still look stronger — an away win is rated at 58%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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