Partizan — Novi Pazar, SuperLiga

Serbia, SuperLigaOctober 10 at 12:00 AM

Partizan

2.9DLLWW

—

Novi Pazar

2.0DDWDL

Outcome probability

632216

Partizan63%Draw22%Novi Pazar16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Partizan63%1.60—

XDraw22%4.59—

2Novi Pazar16%6.43—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.61

No38%

ours 2.64

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPartizanNovi PazarCombined

Goals scored2.171.333.50

Conceded2.330.833.16

Corners7.59.58.5

Cards3.22.86.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
PartizanNovi Pazar
11Table position8
58.80%Possession48.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FK Partizan Beograd: a home win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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