All matches

FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj — FK Sutjeska Nikšić, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
1.6WWLWW
—
FK Sutjeska Nikšić
2.4WWWDW
Outcome probability
342739
FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj34%Draw27%FK Sutjeska Nikšić39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj34%2.93—
XDraw27%3.72—
2FK Sutjeska Nikšić39%2.56—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.26

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Otrant-Olympic UlcinjFK Sutjeska NikšićCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded0.500.000.50
Corners8.011.09.5
Cards3.01.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Otrant-Olympic UlcinjFK Sutjeska Nikšić
    1Table position4
    48.80%Possession50.30%
    6Days of rest6
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Sutjeska Nikšić travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

  • homeFK Jezero Plav4:1
  • awayFK Mornar Bar1:0
  • awayFK Bokelj Kotor1:2
  • homeFK Budućnost Podgorica2:0
  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat2:1

FK Sutjeska Nikšić

  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat2:0
  • homeFK Dečić2:0
  • homeFK Mornar Bar1:0
  • awayOFK Petrovac0:0
  • homeFK Mladost Donja Gorica5:1

Head to head

  • 08/15/26Montenegrin First League4:1
  • 05/14/25Montenegrin First League0:2
  • 03/16/25Montenegrin First League0:2
  • 11/10/24Montenegrin First League0:0
  • 09/14/24Montenegrin First League1:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj951315:1016
2FK Dečić943210:715
3FK Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.