All matches

Orenburg — Makhachkala, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier League

Orenburg
1.0DLDDD
—
Makhachkala
1.2LLWLL
Outcome probability
343531
Orenburg34%Draw35%Makhachkala31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Orenburg34%42%2.942.38-8.0
XDraw35%29%2.843.42+6.1
2Makhachkala31%30%3.253.30+0.4

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.43book 1.79

No59%

ours 1.70book 1.94

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOrenburgMakhachkalaCombined
Goals scored0.671.672.34
Conceded0.831.832.66
Corners8.29.58.8
Cards4.22.36.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    OrenburgMakhachkala
    11Table position7
    37.30%Possession48.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    No clear favourite here — the teams look evenly matched, with a draw rated at 35%. Bookmakers price this at 3.42.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

69%1.48
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Orenburg

  • homeKrasnodar0:0
  • awayDinamo Moskva0:1
  • homeAkron Togliatti2:2
  • awaySpartak Moscow1:1
  • awayFakel Voronezh0:0

Makhachkala

  • homeCSKA Moscow1:3
  • awayAkhmat Grozny2:3
  • homeRodina Moskva2:0
  • awayRubin Kazan1:3
  • homeKrasnodar0:1

Head to head

  • 03/13/26Russian Premier League0:1
  • 07/27/25Russian Premier League1:1
  • 04/19/25Russian Premier League2:1
  • 11/09/24Russian Premier League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Zenit960319:918
6Rubin Kazan926112:1112
7Makhachkala940515:1612
8Baltika Kaliningrad932414:1211
9Krylia Sovetov925213:1411
10Akhmat Grozny924313:1310
11Orenburg91627:109
12Akron Togliatti915311:188
13Rostov922510:178

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.