All matches

FK Mornar Bar — FK Jezero Plav, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Mornar Bar
2.3DLLWD
—
FK Jezero Plav
1.4LDLWL
Outcome probability
592318
FK Mornar Bar59%Draw23%FK Jezero Plav18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Mornar Bar59%1.70—
XDraw23%4.30—
2FK Jezero Plav18%5.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.37

No58%

ours 1.73

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Mornar BarFK Jezero PlavCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded0.832.002.83
Corners11.05.78.3
Cards1.31.52.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Mornar BarFK Jezero Plav
    6Table position8
    44.70%Possession52.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Mornar Bar look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 59%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Mornar Bar

  • awayFK Dečić1:1
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0:1
  • awayFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:1
  • homeFK Bokelj Kotor2:0
  • awayOFK Petrovac1:1

FK Jezero Plav

  • awayFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1:4
  • homeFK Bokelj Kotor1:1
  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica0:3
  • homeFK Arsenal Tivat5:2
  • awayFK Dečić1:2

Head to head

  • 08/02/26Montenegrin First League0:0
  • 05/24/26Montenegrin First League2:0
  • 04/04/26Montenegrin First League2:0
  • 12/06/25Montenegrin First League1:2
  • 09/27/25Montenegrin First League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98
10FK Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.