All matches

FK Mladá Boleslav — FK Teplice, First League

Czech Republic, First League

FK Mladá Boleslav
1.8WLWWD
—
FK Teplice
1.9WLWWL
Outcome probability
422632
FK Mladá Boleslav42%Draw26%FK Teplice32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Mladá Boleslav42%2.40—
XDraw26%3.81—
2FK Teplice32%3.12—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.49

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Mladá BoleslavFK TepliceCombined
Goals scored1.331.172.50
Conceded0.670.831.50
Corners10.88.49.6
Cards1.52.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Mladá BoleslavFK Teplice
    2.9Days of rest6
    2Matches in 14 days1
    3Table position5
    51.80%Possession43.20%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Mladá Boleslav: a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Mladá Boleslav

  • homeFC Zbrojovka Brno2:0
  • awayFC Slovan Liberec0:3
  • homeFC Banik Ostrava4:0
  • home1. FC Slovácko2:1
  • awayFK Pardubice1:1

FK Teplice

  • awayFC Hradec Králové2:0
  • homeSK Slavia Praha0:2
  • awayFC FASTAV Zlín3:1
  • homeFK Jablonec 2:0
  • homeFC Zbrojovka Brno0:2

Head to head

  • 05/23/26First League0:2
  • 02/15/26First League0:0
  • 09/13/25First League3:2
  • 05/04/25First League1:0
  • 02/08/25First League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1SK Slavia Praha972025:623
2FC Slovan Liberec962113:420
3FK Mladá Boleslav852117:917
4SK Sigma Olomouc951316:1316
5FK Teplice951317:1516
6FC Zbrojovka Brno951312:1216
7AC Sparta Praha950418:1215

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.