All matches

FK Livyi Bereh — LNZ Cherkasy FC, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FK Livyi Bereh
1.3WLDDD
—
LNZ Cherkasy FC
2.2LWDLW
Outcome probability
173152
FK Livyi Bereh17%Draw31%LNZ Cherkasy FC52%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Livyi Bereh17%5.74—
XDraw31%3.22—
2LNZ Cherkasy FC52%1.94—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes19%

ours 5.31

No81%

ours 1.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Livyi BerehLNZ Cherkasy FCCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.330.831.16
Corners11.86.59.1
Cards1.01.52.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Livyi BerehLNZ Cherkasy FC
    9Table position7
    4.6Days of rest5.6
    42.30%Possession36.80%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Livyi Bereh

  • awayFK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi2:0
  • awayPolessya Zhitomir0:1
  • awayFK Chornomorets Odessa0:0
  • homeFC Karpaty Lviv1:1
  • awayFK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih1:1

LNZ Cherkasy FC

  • awayFC Shakhtar Donetsk0:3
  • homeFC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv3:1
  • awayFC Dynamo Kyiv0:0
  • homeFC Veres Rivne0:1
  • homeFK Chornomorets Odessa2:0

Head to head

  • 12/07/24Ukrainian Premier League3:1
  • 08/04/24Ukrainian Premier League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv640212:412
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
7LNZ Cherkasy FC72235:88
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.